GOP Survey: Gillibrand Defeat a Long Shot

In Patch's first political insiders poll, Republicans widely expect challenger Wendy Long to come up short.

Downstate New York Republicans think Kirsten Gillibrand is one of the most liberal Senators in Washington DC, but they don't have much confidence that challenger Wendy Long can win her seat: That's the main finding of Patch's inaugural Red Empire political insiders poll.

More than three-quarters of elected officials, party leaders, activists and other influencers surveyed last week said they expect Gillibrand to win, with 50 percent saying they strongly agree that a Democratic victory is a lock.

Only 10 percent of respondents thought Manhattan attorney Wendy Long could win the race.

Though more than a month has gone by since Long beat U.S. Rep. Bob Turner and Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos in the Republican primary, respondents were split down the middle when it came to how familiar they are with Long's platform.

When it comes to Long's stance on the economy, 48 percent said they were either not familiar or barely familiar with Long's approach to fiscal issues. Meanwhile, 39 percent said they were somewhat familiar with her stance while 13 said they were very familiar.

Long has called herself a Reagan Conservative, favoring less regulation and reduced taxes for business.

Despite respondents being unfamiliar with Long's platform, 66 percent said they thought Republicans picked the best candidate in the primary. Meanwhile, 24 percent would have favored Turner and 10 percent would have preferred Maragos to face Gillibrand in November.

In our first Red Empire Survey, Patch sent questionnaires to 96 key party activists, elected officials and others from the lower Hudson Valley, Long Island, Brooklyn and Queens who agreed to anonymously give their opinions in a series of surveys between now and November. Patch this week received completed surveys from 31 people — nearly 30 percent of those surveyed.

Among those who have agreed to take part are several town supervisors, state Assembly members and Senators, county legislators, city council members, community board members and congressional candidates.

Respondents also backed Long's campaign claim that Gillibrand is one of the most liberal politicians in Washington. About 74 percent of respondents agreed that Gillibrand is too liberal, while 13 percent disagreed with that claim and another 13 percent said they did not know.

The response was interesting since Gillibrand was criticized for her conservative stances when Gov. David Paterson appointed her to fill the Senate seat vacated by Hilary Clinton in 2009, most notably her pro-NRA stance on gun control. The Senator has said her stance has shifted to the left since she joined the Senate.

On the other hand, when it came to Gillibrand's very un-liberal decision to break with the Democratic party in 2011 and vote against raising the Federal debt ceiling, Republican respondents mostly sided with the senator: 70 percent agreed with her vote, 30 percent did not.

The Red Empire Survey
Our surveys are not a scientific random sample of any larger population but rather an effort to listen to a swath of influential local Republican activists, party leaders and elected officials in New York. All of these individuals have agreed to participate in the surveys, although not all responded to this week's questions. Surveys were conducted between July 23 and July 31, 2012.

Patch will be conducting Red Empire State and Blue Empire State surveys throughout 2012 in hopes of determining the true sentiment of conservatives and liberals on the ground in New York. If you are an activist, party leader or elected official and would like to take part in a weekly surveys that lasts just a few minutes, please email Henry@patch.com.)

Red Empire Roster: Linda Cabral Marrero, Village of Ossining Mayoral Candidate, Pete Tripodi, Town of Ossining Councilman, Kim Izzarelli, 95th New York State Assembly District Candidate, Bob Terilli, Former Village of Ossining Trustee Candidate, Steve Dewey, Former Town of Ossining Councilman Candidate, John Murphy, Rockand County Legislator, Denis Troy, Orangetown Councilman, Paul Valentine, Orangetown Councilman, Tom Diviny, Orangetown Councilman, Tom Morr, Orangetown Councilman, Quinton Van Wynen, Pearl River Schools, Richie Bell, Head of the Pelham Republican Committee, Michael Recca, Westchester County Young Republicans, Michele Em, Activist, Steve Fuchs, Republican Town Committee Chairman, Elizabeth Bermel, Director of the Scarsdale Library, Jim Maisano, County Legislator, Ilyse Spertus, Former City Council Candidate, Peter Parente, Former Mayoral Candidate, Dennis Starr, Activist, Denise Ward, Attorney, Norm Rosenblum, Village of Mamaroneck Mayor, Lou Santoro, Village of Mamaroneck Deputy Mayor/Trustee, Maryanne Genovese, Party Chairwoman,  Don Derrico, Party Chairman, Donald Sutherland, Republican Committee Secretary, Marlane Amelio, Councilwoman, Steve Malfitano, Councilman/Former Supervisor, Joe Cannella, Councilman, Luke Vander Linden, Bedford GOP Member, Robert Castelli, State Assemblyman, Lee Roberts, Bedford Town Supervisor, Don Scott, Bedford GOP Chair, Nan Hayworth, Congresswoman, Ed Day, Rockland County Legislator, Bob Axelrod, Clarkstown Republican Committee Chair, Christopher Carey, Rockland County Legislator, Frank Borelli, Clarkstown Town Councilman, Vincent Reda, Rockland County GOP Chair and Mitt Romney Lower Hudson Valley Campaign Coordinator, Matthew Slater, Vice President of Yorktown GOP, Terrence Murphy, Yorktown Councilman, Jennie Menton-Grasso, Community Member, Tony Grasso, Former Yorktown Councilman, Elizabeth Hudak, Southeast Councilwoman, Will Stephens, Former State Assemblyman, Jim Schoenig, Mayor for the Village of Brewster, Eric Cyprus,  Vice Chair of Southeast Republican Committee, Terri Patton Stockburger, Village of Brewster Trustee, Bob Cullen, Southeast Councilman, Edwin Alvarez, Southeast Councilman, Michael Bartolotti, Chairman of Southeast Republicans, Robert Kirkwood, Former New Castle Supervisor Candidate, Gary Murphy, Activist, Judy McGrath, Activist, Robert Castelli, State Assemblyman, Robin Murphy, Activist, Christine Miscioscia, Former Tarrytown Trustee Candidate, Eleanor Miscioscia, Former Tarrytown Trustee Candidate, Philip E. Zegarelli, Former Sleepy Hollow Mayor, Jennifer Lobato-Church, Sleepy Hollow Trustee, George Lence, GOP Donor, Michael Smith, County Legislator, Terence Guerriere, White Plains Republican District Leader, Iris Pagan, Westchester County Women’s Republican Club, Bob Jackson, Former County Legislator, Ed Romaine, Suffolk County Legislator, Chris Talbot, Southold Town Councilman, John Galla, Riverhead GOP Chairman, Denis Noncarrow, Southold GOP Chairman, George Gabrielesen, Riverhead Town Councilman, Jim Wooten, Riverhead Town Councilman, Jesse Garcia, Chairman of Brookhaven GOP, Angelo Lomonte, Long Beach Zoning Board Member, Chris Wendt, Republican Supporter, Frank Scaturro, 4th Distruct Congressional Candidate, David McDonough, State Assemblyman, Gary Hudes, Hempstead Town Councilman, Jogi Giglio, Riverhead Town Councilwoman, Mark Epley, Southampton Village Mayor, William Wright, Southampton Town Republican Committee Chairman, Jane Bonner, Brookhaven Town Councilwoman, Joan Adams Owner of Pierian Consulting, Ari Kirschenbaum, Director of Chabad Prospect Heights & Fort Greene, Juan Reyes, Supporter, Vince Tabone, Supporter, Louis Perrotta III, Supporter, Christopher Allred, Supporter, Scott Russell, Southold Town Supervisor, Robert Creighton, Smithtown Town Councilman, Peter McGreevy, Commodore at Orient Yacht Club, Ralph Ekstrand, Farmingdale Mayor, Dina DeGiorgio, North Hempstead Councilwoman, Dave Franklin, Port Washington Police Commissioner, Thomas J. Kehoe, Northport Village Trustee, Warren Church, Syosset American Legion Commander, Linda Manning-Koziatek, Realtor, Glenn Nocera, President of the Brooklyn Young Republican Club, Joe Bloecker, East Hampton Town Trustee, Don Derham, Federalist's Society of Long Island, Betty Manzella, Vice Chair of the Brookhaven Republicans, Dan Panico, Town of Brookhaven Councilman.

Walter Isaacs August 03, 2012 at 02:34 PM
Chik Fil-A has more hits than anything you listed. http://www.google.com/trends/hottrends You may qualify. http://www.ssa.gov/disability/professionals/bluebook/112.00-MentalDisorders-Childhood.htm
Ex Parkie August 03, 2012 at 02:44 PM
Ann Marie, as a middle class American who pays his taxes, I see no problem with applying for pell grants to offset the high cost of College. If it wasn't for these grants & scholarships, I don't know if my children could go to the college of their choice.
Bill Breuer August 03, 2012 at 02:47 PM
Has everyone forgotten that Al D'Amato hand picked the junior Senator from NY. This former Republican Senator has a whole lot of 'splaining to do.
GLENN August 03, 2012 at 03:28 PM
Ex Parkie, You are the 1%, but the pell grants are given to people who have NEVER worked a day ever in the USA or paid 1 penny taxes. Anyone can apply and almost anyone can get it. My room mate in college, was from Romania she paid for nothing. The American tax payer picked up her tab, and then some.
GLENN August 03, 2012 at 03:32 PM
Ron, Love that...typical democrat!
GLENN August 03, 2012 at 03:34 PM
Hey Bob, sad, 85,000 on disability...80,000 jobs created.
North Fork Bob August 03, 2012 at 03:58 PM
ANNMARIE sure is sad and the downward spiral shows no signs of abating.Wait til the effects of this drought hit.Goldman Sachs is trading in corn and we are projected to be importing food for the first time in history.I'm staying very close to God
Mary Beth August 03, 2012 at 04:03 PM
Despite the protestations from rightwing zealots, Ms. Gillibrand will win handily, and deservedly. What makes people like annmarie, preliator, et al so angry is that they represent a very small minority of far right-wing nuts. They scream louder than anyone else, but they are not being heard. They have betrayed the very principals of their heroes (e.g. Ronald Reagan) in favor of nut jobs like Bachman, Palin, Randy Outsourcer, Karl Rove . . . They fight against their own best interests because they dream of being someone else - someone who would actually benefit from deregulation, millionaire tax cuts, etc. But, as each day passes, their dreams become further and further out of reach. Instead of realizing this and thinking rationally, they just grow more and more frustrated and angry that the world is evolving while they remain the same and so they lash out at that they do not understand. Elections are won and lost by independent voters who hear the insanity coming from the right. They cannot believe that people can be so stupid, irrational, and hateful so they move left and, in turn, we all benefit - all but those right wing extremists. Thank you, Senator Gillibrand for all you've done for New York, and thank you Annmarie, Preliator, Jaguar Guy, et al for driving voters to the democratic party.
Preliator August 03, 2012 at 04:10 PM
So I guess Harry Reid, the democrat majority leader and all around liar, and the rest of the useless democrats in the senate are okay for not taking up a vote on 30 jobs bills passed by the House? Or not passing a budget in over 1000 days? What is Harry Reid afraid of...that these bills might pass, that he dos not have control over his own party members? Don't make it sound like the democrats are not with out sin, there is plenty of blame to go around.
Preliator August 03, 2012 at 04:12 PM
hey look, Nitwit Taxpayer found learned how to copy and paste. Great job, you get a gold star today.
Preliator August 03, 2012 at 04:25 PM
Your reading comprehension skills are sorely lacking, I'll give you $10 bucks if you can find a post where I said Gillibrand would not win. You won't find it. You can't even get a basic fact like that right, why the hell should anyone listen to your moronic effluence. The only thing that can make anyone angry is YOU. There are plenty of people who have a different opinion and are capable of expressing it without the turbid mindless hate you express every day. You can not have a thought or opinion with deriding or insulting some one. Do we all crack wise with one another, yes, passions or high, but you take this to another level. You are a bully, plain and simple, full of hate and anger.
Craig August 03, 2012 at 04:36 PM
In no way was Nixon a conservative. I am not sure where that comes from.
Jelly Roll Morton August 03, 2012 at 04:38 PM
Wow, whaddayaknow. In the Patch's first poll of political insiders, the political insiders thought the political insider would win. Gee, didn't see this coming.
Jelly Roll Morton August 03, 2012 at 04:40 PM
When the Xanax wears off and you are back from the clouds of pontification feel free to post again, but until then, you sort of sound like Abraham Lincoln on ludes.
GLENN August 03, 2012 at 06:07 PM
Bob, I am with you. Most of the people don't understand the true facts, they just want to take real facts for anger. When they realize what is really happening you watch how fast they abandon their thinking and join the right side!
GLENN August 03, 2012 at 06:13 PM
Wake up Mary Beth, wake up, it's time, your way of thinking is very dangerous. Listen and start to learn the truth. The democratic party is so filled with hate and racism people are starting to wake up. Even the Democrats are turning on Obama.
Marc August 03, 2012 at 06:35 PM
You talking about Gilly, o'bama or both?
John Gruber August 03, 2012 at 06:48 PM
AnnMarie, you and anyone else who thinks the 2 parties are different are incredibly naive. Both are equally corrupt and have the same amount of nut jobs on both sides. this thread only proves it. And just to prove you don't know what you're talking about, the people who made the law in Arizona that essentially legalized racial profiling by law enforcers were Republican. So stop talking about Democrats being racist and hateful, you're clearly wrong, again
GLENN August 03, 2012 at 06:53 PM
John Gruben, How can I be wrong, read the comments here, if it comes from a democrat and they don't agree with what they read they get very nasty and start with the insults. The Dem's are a very angry group. Debating a issue can be great but not when people become bullies.
2 Turn Tables August 03, 2012 at 06:58 PM
John, racism is not always defined by hate. Judging someone because of their race is racism. Selecting,appointing, or hiring someone becausemof their race, is... Racism. Democrats and especially progressives are infatuated with race, and sexual orientation for that matter. Republicans/Conservatives are pragmatists, and hire the person based on their merit, regardless of race.
2 Turn Tables August 03, 2012 at 07:06 PM
Mary Beth. The Democratic Party is off of its rocker. This Chik Fli A thing is outrageous. The Owner/President was asked a question. He answered it. He didn't damn them. He said more or less, he is a traditional guy, church going fellow, and that lifestyle doesn't appeal to him. What happens next? Bomb threats, wishing people choke on chicken bones, boycotts and hate speech because of his opinion. I buy Hagan Daz instead of Ben and Jerrys, and I don't abuse people in the frozen food section. So a thank you, for turning blue dog/Reagan Democrats into Republican voters. Behavior like that above is reprehensible to most people.
Grifhunter August 03, 2012 at 07:20 PM
Wrong grasshopper. The middle class jobs are in the marketing, legal, product development, accounting, advertising, tech, banking, benifits, managment departments in the corporations like Apple. We've replaced mind numbing, unskilled assemblyline work with white collar jobs. Which do you want your kids to do? These types of jobs are in decline soley because of the leftist economic policies of the Dems in making class warefare on business, threatening unstable tax structures, and leaving investors uncertain. Companies don't know where they'll be in 5 years financially and therefore, won't develop, expand, invest or hire due to a lack of confidence in the debt ridden US economy. They are forced to withhold capital expenditures because of Democratic social engineering like Obama care and threatened changes to corporate and individual tax rates that makes their liquidity UNCERTAIN in the future. The libs distortions in claiming the economy is bad because corporations are hoarding money is laughable when it is their ignorant financial policies that force companies to contract and play wait and see. Would you add an addition on to your house if you didn't comfortably know what your kept earnings were going to be for the next five years? So vote pro growth, vote Republican and don't worry- nobody is taking away your beloved birth control or kicking granny off medicare.
Justin Time August 03, 2012 at 07:54 PM
New York politically is doing just fine. It is the schools that are over taxing us. Alot of kids go to college because they would be useless in the real world "working" Time to implement the draft, clean out the disrespect and set a sense of discilpine in society. The wars will never end because what would we do with those "coming home", put them on welfare? CHEER UP. Life is good!
Walter Isaacs August 03, 2012 at 07:58 PM
@grifhunter your theory seems as flawed as David Carradine's attempt at autoerotic asphyxiation. We tried trickle down and it did not work. The pie has been consistently getting bigger as has the size of the slice taken by those at the top. GE Verizon and many others are paying no or close to zero taxes, executive compensation has gone berserk. Guess what, not everyone is college/ middle management material, so those "mind numbing" jobs used to put food on the table. If no one would put an extension on the house without knowing for sure what the next 5 would bring, then why all the McMansions in the past 15years?
John Gruber August 03, 2012 at 08:00 PM
so because they elected a half african-american to run for their party they only care about race and not merit and only republicans care about merit? That's a little different than a law based on racial profiling. So an entire political party is racist? Thank god you republicans are here to give us all the answers. Thank you for proving my point about political partys
Heywood J. August 03, 2012 at 09:17 PM
Hey John Gruber, like Justin Time says, look on the positive side, he might be half african american, but he's also half white.
North Fork Bob August 04, 2012 at 02:59 AM
Justin will you be first in line for the Draft or Welfare?
Tom Dewick August 05, 2012 at 02:32 PM
Wow! You are an incredible idiot!
Tom Dewick August 05, 2012 at 02:34 PM
Liberals like you, Hank, love spending other people's money. You are obviously a boob with your head in the sand.
Yusef Malarkey August 07, 2012 at 10:56 AM
Possible for you to instant message me and recommend the doctor who did your frontal labotomy? I want to refer some of my family members to the same physician.


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