SSM and 2016

What once was an issue considered a death knell in American Politics is emerging to be a mainstream topic in electoral politics. New York’s passage of Same Sex Marriage has given the issue of Marriage equality the ultimate legitimacy that it deserves. The enactment of Marriage equality will not only impact hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers but also the 2016 Presidential Race.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is one of the most promising figures in Democratic politics for the 2016 contest. Governor Cuomo’s passionate push for Same Sex Marriage will make him a likely choice for the progressive base of the Democratic Party. The same progressive base that enabled Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination in 2008 and ultimately the presidency.  Other prospective names are Governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland, Former Governor and Current U.S. Senator Mark Warner, Vice President Joe Biden, California Attorney General Kamala Harris, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Governor Martin O’Malley tried unsuccessfully to pass marriage equality in Maryland this year. Democrats in Maryland control both legislative houses by very wide margins. Governor O’Malley is expected to continue to push for Same Sex Marriage as it will be key to wooing the progressive base in 2016. If he is unsuccessful it will largely be viewed as a failure of leadership being that Andrew Cuomo was able to usher through Marriage Equality with a Republican controlled State Senate.  

Mark Warner of Virginia opposes Same Sex Marriage and will likely vie for the shrinking moderate portion of the Democratic Party. However with the election being five years away, Senator Warner still has time to “evolve” on Same Sex Marriage.

 Vice President Joe Biden has stated he opposes Same Sex Marriage but favors civil unions like his boss President Barack Obama.  Biden’s home state of Delaware is considered to be in the next frontier for Same Sex Marriage advocates. Delaware’s Governor Jack Markell tried unsuccessfully to pass Same Sex Marriage this year and will likely try again in 2013 after the State Legislative elections. If Delaware legalizes Same Sex Marriage, the conventional wisdom is that Vice President Biden will come out in support of it.

California Attorney General Kamala Harris is often mentioned as someone who can replicate Barack Obama’s swift rise to power. She is a rising star in the Democratic Party and will likely get a nice speaking slot at the 2012 Democratic Convention just like Barack Obama did in 2004.  Mrs. Harris supports Same Sex Marriage but unlike some of the other prospective candidates does not have jurisdiction over the issue.  

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has previously opposed Same Sex Marriage. Mrs. Clinton has supported the repeal of DOMA, and believes the issue should be decided by the states. Clinton has had a good relationship with the LBGT community and will be able to change her position with relative ease if she chooses too.

While a lot still remains up in the air, most agree that in 2016 any Democrat with hopes of becoming the nominee will have to support marriage equality. Based on polling, support for marriage equality has risen steadily each year. Today, a majority of Americans support marriage equality, a substantial increase from 2008 when 40% supported marriage equality.  Now just imagine where that number will stand in 2016. Based on the current trend, well over 60% of Americans should support marriage equality by the 2016 election. That number would force all viable contenders for the Democratic nomination to support marriage equality because if its 60% of the general public in support then it will be well above that when just polling the Democratic Party. The bottom line is that any Democratic Governor or Senator with national aspirations will have to be proactive when it comes to Same Sex Marriage in the coming years especially if they expect to compete against an accomplished humanitarian like Governor Andrew Cuomo.