University Experts: Japan Quake Was Rare, Could Have Been Worse

The 8.9 magnitude earthquake recorded Friday in Japan is a rare event that usually happens only a half-dozen times over the course of a century – and it could have been even worse, according to experts at .

Dan M. Davis, professor of geosciences at the state college, said Friday afternoon that this particular earthquake originated along a fault in the ocean floor spanning about 500 to 600 kilometers in width and 100 to 150 kilometers in vertical depth. Had that vertical factor been greater than it was, Davis said, Japan could have experienced tremors, aftershocks and tsunamis even worse than those which have already claimed hundreds of lives and left many more injured or missing.

"We were lucky in this case because the vertical motion in this earthquake was apparently not as vertical as it could have been," Davis said.

Davis was joined by Lianxing Wen, professor of geophysics, and Malcolm Bowman, professor of physical oceanography, to explain what had happened to members of the media and a handful of students and other faculty members with ties to Japan.

Wen said Friday's earthquake could likely be linked to another that occurred near Japan three days ago which registered at 7.2 in magnitude. But Davis cautioned against connecting Friday's earthquake to the recent ones which rocked New Zealand and Chile, explaining they are merely random events.

"There are literally thousands of earthquakes a day," he said. "Randomness means that sometimes things will be far apart and sometimes things will be close together."

This earthquake carried with it about 25 times the energy of the most powerful nuclear bomb the U.S. ever manufactured, and the aftershocks could last for months, Davis said.

To explain why the tsunami occurred, he compared the ocean to a bathtub with a rubber bottom. If you were to throw an upwards punch and strike the rubber floor, a wave would be produced at the surface. Bowman called the tsunami a major one, "not something you'd want to stand around watching."

"The danger from the commercial point of view is that small buildings can be washed away," Bowman said of the tsunami. "They traveled across the Pacific pretty fast and fortunately gave us time to make plans."

He said the east coast wouldn't feel any effects, but that the west coast could expect shadows of the tsunami to bring waves of two to three feet.

As report after report showed how extreme the damage in Japan has been, faculty member Eva Nagase – who has family in Yokohama, a 45-minute train ride from Tokyo – began to get worried.

"I kept calling from 5 a.m. this morning. I couldn't get through to them," said Nagase, who teaches Japanese language at Stony Brook. "Not knowing is hard."

Among those listening to the professors' explanations were Kotona Okuno, an international student from Okayama, Japan, and Ayumi Kano, an American student with family and friends in Japan.

"I think everybody got shocked," said Okuno, who was able to reach her mother via Skype this morning and confirm her family is alright.

Kano learned her grandmother was also doing okay in Osaka, where there was not much damage.

"But my friends are in Tokyo so I'm kind of worried," she said.

The devastation had the two students wondering what could be done to help those displaced by the natural disasters.

"I hope many people send money to Japan to help them," Okuno said. "Some of my friends started to collect money to donate."

Kano recalled when a powerful earthquake hit Niigata, Japan, in 2007. She joined a group of people making origami to send to schools there as a gesture of support.

"I agree that money would help," she said, "but we can maybe have some other projects, like penpals, for emotional and mental support."